Annual Streamflow and Flood Event Simulation for Future Water Supply—A Multiple Lines of Evidence Approach

Abstract

Effective water resource management under climate change is dependent on reliable modeling of future water availability, yet significant uncertainties remain due to shifting precipitation patterns and limitation in climate modeling. This study investigates a multiple-lines-of-evidence approach aimed at reducing the uncertainty in projections of streamflow, specifically focusing on extreme flood events as proxies for total annual flows. Using subdaily rainfall-runoff models calibrated for four climatically diverse Australian catchments, we compare projections from regional climate model (RCM) downscaling with a continuous precipitation generation approach conditioned on stable climatic covari..